Covid-19 Tracker: A slow and steady decline


Hello, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

Hospitalizations, recorded infections and positivity rates have continued to decline, but possibly at a slower rate (depending on data source). A Estimates of the number remain relatively low.

The de facto president of Public Health announced that a fourth vaccine would be “necessary”.

The vaccine does little to protect against infection, but even the initial two doses showed long-term protection against serious illness and hospitalization.

If after two years of the pandemic, politicians refuse to take even the most modest steps to control the virus, we must be prepared to be unprepared for the next outbreak (and the next pathogen).

Global vaccination? Do not ask.

Official cynicism over masking has been a leading indicator throughout the crisis. Not only are public health officials refusing to push N95s for the public, they are even refusing to recommend them to hospitals at a time when hospital transmission is higher than ever. For me, there is only one plausible explanation: lack of profit for production and distribution.

BTW, after announcing the availability of N95s at local pharmacies, I have yet to see any in pharmacies in San Francisco (although I have heard of someone buying from Home Depot in Colma). If you have any information on where people can get N95s, please let us know. San Francisco public health officials can’t be bothered.

You may have read about the outbreak in hong kong, where vaccination is low. But what about South Korea, where 90% of the population is fully vaccinated and over 60% boosted.

The cases are peak in Europe as well as.

The push from Asia appears to be related to the omicron (BA.1) while that from Europe appears to be related to the omicron sub-variant (BA.2). Although the subvariant seems more contagious, Vaccine appears to protect against hospitalization and death.

The surveillance that exists in the United States suggests that we could have a spring surge earlier than usual. We may get lucky like last year when most countries including SF avoided the Alpha variant push.

Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.

As of March 15, DPH reports fewer San Franciscans, 781 787, were vaccinated only last week. Yet the Ministry reports more than 89 percent of all San Francisco residents received one dose, and more 83 percent received two. For residents 5 years and older, those receiving a dose remain above 90 percent and but those who had two fell to 86 percent while for those aged 65 and over more than 90 percent received two doses. The number of recalls is virtually unchanged from last week. As of March 15, approximately 471,064 Residents of SF (65 percent of all the inhabitants, 83 percent residents age 65 and older) received a COVID-19 booster dose, an increase in less than 1 percent over the past week.

To find out where to get vaccinated in and around the mission, visit our Vaccination page.

Over the past week, hospitalizations have plummeted 25 percent. On March 12, DPH reports that there has been 43 covid hospitalizations, or about 4.9 covid-related hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants (based on a population of 874,000). Intensive care patients have been in single digits since March 2. Today, the California Department of Public Health reports 45 covid patients in SF hospitals and ten Intensive care patients.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg General Hospital in San Francisco with 6 covid patients and 7 critical care beds available, while across the mission, CPMC had 3 covid patients and 3 Intensive care beds available. Of 77 reported covid patients, 34 were at SFGH or UCSF, with at least 70 Critical care beds available from reporting hospitals (does not include Veterans Administration). The California DPH is currently reporting 86 Intensive care beds available in San Francisco.

Between January 10 and March 11, DPH recorded 2278 new infections among Mission residents or 388 new infections per 10,000 population. Bayview Hunters Point continues with the highest rate with 670 new infections per 10,000 population. In 38 neighborhoods, 9 had rates above 400 per 10,000 inhabitants, all in the east and southeast areas of the city. Noe Valley had the lowest rate at 208 per 10,000 people.

DPH reports on March 8 that the 7-day average of daily new infections recorded in the city fell to 83 or around 9.5 new infections per day per 100,000 population (based on a population of 874,000), representing a 25 percent falling since last week. According to DPH, the 7-day average infection rate among vaccinated residents was 8.4 per 100,000 “fully immunized” population and 19.7 per 100,000 unvaccinated population. It is not clear whether “fully vaccinated” means 2 or 3 doses. According to the New York Times, the 7-day average number was 34 on March 15, a 85 percent falling over the past two weeks.

For the month of February, DPH reports that Asians represented 28.5 % of total for the month, vs. 25 percent in January. The whites represented 23.7%from 19.7%Latinxs 15.6%down 21.2%Black 5.6%down 5.7%multiracial 1.3%from 1 percentPacific Islanders 0.6%down 1 percentand Native Americans had 0.1 percent of the total for the month, against 0.2% in January.

In February, Multi-racials had a 7.4 percent positivity rate, Latinxs 6.4%Black 6 percentPacific Islanders 6 percentNative Americans 5.7%Asians 5.5% and whites had a positivity rate in February of 4.3%.

Twenty new covid-related deaths were reported, bringing the total since the start of the year to 141. DPH will not say how many were vaxed and how many not. It also does not provide information on the race/ethnicity or socioeconomic status of recently deceased individuals. The omicron death toll seems higher than delta. During and after the delta surge, from July to October, the number was 105. According to the DPH, “COVID-19 deaths are suspected to be associated with COVID-19. This means that COVID-19 is listed as a cause of death or a significant condition on the death certificate. “Use a phrase like “suspected of being associated withindicates the difficulty in determining a covid death. Ambiguity is heightened as currently DPH continues to report only 21 from 835 deaths are known to have had no underlying conditions or comorbidities.

Covid R Estimate on March 4, estimated San Francisco’s R number at .45 while currently estimating California’s R number estimate at .54. The set, as of March 14, estimates San Francisco’s R number at .53 while estimating California’s R number at .80.

For the month of February, DPH reports 115 infections among homeless San Franciscans. The Department also reports 0 cumulative deaths among this population (compared to 7 previously reported). In the EHPAD (“skilled nursing care establishments”), reports the DPH 40 new infections for the month and 3 new deaths. In single occupancy (SRO) hotels, DPH reports 164 new infections for the month and 5 new deaths.

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